Like Watching Sausage Being Made, But Not As Interesting

Yesterday I watched the opening session of the Maine State Legislature. It was basically pomp and circumstance with addresses by our governor, John Baldacci (if only there were an emoticon that expressed "I feel nauseous just thinking about this douche bag, let alone writing his name; and I can't wait until he is out of power), as well as from the newly appointed Speaker of the House, Hannah ("Hi Mom! Thanks for getting me the job") Pingree. OK, so I'm not impressed with them, but what's the alternative, voting Republican? Hello, lesser evil.

Anyway, using my poli sci degree I will attempt to breakdown a few of the wonders I witnesses yesterday.

First: What's the point of giving these people a lunch buffett? Can't they go to the cafeteria and get their own damn food? There are a lot of needy people in Maine facing benefit cuts at the hands of the same people going for a second helping of rolls. I don't think that was government cheese I saw on the table.

Second: Should we feel proud or frightened in regards to that unstable guy who seems to show up at every government session, whether it's the State Legislature or a meeting of a local school board? On one hand, it's nice that people show an interest in the process; on the other hand, these people seem to carry one or more types of Hepatitis, haven't discovered the wonders of a comb, consider Old Duke an acceptable substitute for mouth wash, think showers are a once-a-month event and usually express their opinions out loud to whomever is on the other side of the conversation in their head. Maybe these are the true political scientists. Most people weren't as riveted with the whole spectacle as this guy. I wonder what his party affiliation is.

Third: OK, I admit it, I'm a sucker for the whole government thing. I'm proud of the architecture of our State House and the enthusiasm in the air. For small moments of time, I forgot my cynical side (the reasonable one) and enjoyed the ceremony of it. Do I dare say that I'm optimistic? Well, it was nice while it lasted.

It Shouldn't Have Been This Close

Congratulations to Alaska for not re-electing the first convicted felon to the U.S. Senate. That's one less political embarrassment for the state.

Oh, Fuck Me

McCain turns to Maine's Second District. Michigan's loss is our gain? Fantastic. Guess who's coming to visit? We got moose, we got hockey moms, we put lipstick on pigs...

Short Attention Span Politics

I think Sara Palin is our first short attention span candidate. As she was responding to Gwen Ifill's questions, I kept on forgetting what it was Gwen asked. Palin seem to ignore whatever the topic was and stuck with the campaign talking points. She was all over the place. She just rambled on until her time was up - and she didn't say anything. Tax cuts! Maverick! Change! She's perfect for the under informed populace, the MTV generation used to quick glimpses of information and the certifiably insane. The United Stupids of America are probably zoning in and out while she's babbling, unaware that she's skirting the issues being discussed. There is no way people who pay attention to shit are totally for her because of her position or knowledge - these supporters must have some other motivation.

Debating the Debate

Why do news organizations immediately go to someone in each of the opposing camps and ask their opinion on how the debates went? Are they expecting one of them to go, "Well, shit, my guy totally fucked up and I gotta say, after listening to his opponent, I'm gonna switch sides." No. Their guy could have shouted out, "I'd suck Bin Laden's balls!" and they'd still say he won. What's the point? The same goes for the commentators on staff. Really, Pat Buchanan thought McCain won? I am abso-fucking-lutely shocked. I want someone to give me a honest assessment.

OK, I'll tell you that I think Obama won, but I'm biased. So, read this with a grain of salt.

Obama did win, but only by the skin of his teeth. He wasn't strong going into the first twenty minutes of the debate - he seemed to be treading water. I think there were a ton of opportunities to attack McCain, but he let them all slip away. McCain on the other hand, may not have beat Obama, but he came away with a great success - he didn't lose the entire election, which was the direction he was heading in this week. He put his campaign back on track after this odd "senior moment" of the non-suspension campaign suspension and swooping into Washington with enough political theater that House Republicans could stage their revolt. (OK, they probably would have revolted anyway, but McCain's presence sure as shit appeared to be the catalyst) and the whole will he or won't he suspense about attending the debate at all. Not to mention pissing of David Letterman - which may actually have caused more lasting damage than anything else. Who wants a national personality with a nightly show seen by millions of voters crapping all over you Monday through Friday from now until the election?

So, no real fireworks. They both got in a few jabs and both stumbled. Obama benefitted from finally finding his footing and strengthened during the last half hour - which may have swayed my thinking he won. But it's next Thursday's debate which will be the fun one. Palin v. Biden. What kind of shenanigans will the McCain campaign pull to deflect from that? Will he pull her and put Rudy in her place? Hmmm...

A Poem by Sara Palin

Excellent Question, Katie

By Sara Palin

That Alaska,
a very narrow maritime border,
between a foreign country: Russia.
And on our other side, the land-- boundary that we have.
Canada, it… it's funny.
A comment like that was kind of made to…
I don't know,
you know, Reporters?
Yeah, mocked,
I guess that's the word,
yeah.

Our next door neighbors are,
foreign countries.
They're in the state that I am the executive of.
And there in Russia.
We have trade missions,
back and forth.
We, we do.
It's very important,
when you consider,
even national security issues with Russia.


As Putin rears his head,
Comes into the air space of the United States of America.
Where? Where do they go?
It's Alaska.
It's just right over the border. It is.
From Alaska that we send those out,
to make sure that an eye is being kept.
This very powerful nation, Russia.
Because they are right there.
They are right next to our state.

Armageddon It - A Political Rant

Holy shit, the world is coming to an end. Save us Henry Paulsen! What do you need? $700 billion and absolute power? You got it.

Wait, let me get this straight, these big wig capitalists - including the first MBA President - want a socialized solution to this mess? The United States Government now owns an 80% share in AIG. We own one of the largest insurance and financial companies in the world, and the government has an actual say in how the business is run. Even Eugene Debs has risen from the grave to say, "What the fuck?"

OK, this isn't exactly communism, but it isn't exactly capitalism - it's something in between, a socialism that's nationalized, a kind of national socialism, if you will. I believe another country dabbled in a similar scheme sometime around the first half of the Twentieth Century. Can't remember much about it (damn my public school education), but I think they also had a bone to pick with the Jews.Oh, it'll come to me.

Can someone please tell me how we can bail out these millionaire fuck ups (the air will be filled with golden parachutes), but there are still children in this country who go hungry and don't have adequate medical care? I mean, if we're heading for a socialist nation why not fix a few problems along the way? If we're going to say to hell with our economic ideals, why not do some good on our pathway to a socialist Hell?

And what is Congress doing? They're speeding this bail out along because they've been told the sky is falling - and they want to recess to campaign, so they'll just go back to Washington to do the same nothing they've shown such a knack for doing. There is no doubt that a bill will be passed, probably as soon as this weekend without a whole hell of a lot of discussion - or at least not any constructive discussion [But hey, there's a Presidential debate happening friday, so that should give us a real national discussion about this problem... what's that? They're only focusing on foreign policy? Really? The biggest economic crisis is currently happening and they're not going to talk about it? What the fuck?]. I bet the vote to approve this bail out will occur somewhere around 1:00 in the morning, you know the same time of night last Saturday the Treasury Department released their $700 billion, no strings attached, the Treasury Secretary becomes the most powerful person in the U.S. government request.

Thank god there's a presidential election coming up with two highly qualified candidates... what's that? Economy is one of McCain's weaknesses and Obama hasn't proven himself on that front either. Well at least Sara Palin has a strong grasp of responsible public spending... what's that? Put her town of 6,500 people $20 million dollars in the hole during her one term in office. You'll excuse me while I breakdown and cry. At least she had a crash course in foreign policy yesterday with meeting with some foreign heads of state, like Henry Kissinger. Hell, she was probably wondering which country Kissinger ran. The funny dude has a weird accent, so it's got to be from somewhere across the Atlantic, right?

OK, I'll let you in on a little secret about how to follow politics without becoming an alcoholic or a meth addict (I mean, look at the way the people in Wasilla handled Palin's role of mayor) - the secret is to have a sense of humor... and no investments.

Goodbye Hillary. Oh, Wait...

She ain't crying today. OK, is it that surprising that she did so well in New Hampshire? Yes, Obama gained a huge boost after Iowa, but the scales tipped so dramaticly that it was a bit of a stretch to think that so many people had changed their mind in a matter of a couple of days. Or were people so much on the fence that they didn't truly decide until they were in the ballot booth? Chris Matthews called it one of the greatest upsets in political history. Really? A candidate who was the frontrunner for over a year dips in the polls a few days before the Primary only to win it, and suddenly she's the comeback kid.

I think the media was so hungry for the possible toppling of the big frontrunner that they began to believe and promote that idea. They were hoping for a Howard Dean "heeya!" meltdown. But that didn't happen. What went wrong with the polls? Couldn't have been the media's fault could it? Nah. There has to be another reason, like racism. Yes, since Obama is black (or at least mostly black, maybe 50/50?) the race card comes to the forefront. But it isn't being used by the Obama campaign - they're progressive enough to think beyond using race as a strategy and thinking the American public (or at least those who aren't still fighting the "Northern Aggression") will rely on it as the only deciding factor - no, the race card is being used by the media as an excuse for their failings. That's right. The media didn't count on New Hampshire being populated by racists, that's why the polls didn't match the results.

OK, let's think about this for a moment in terms of demographics. According to exit polls, more women and registered Democrats voted for Hillary, while more men and registered Independents voted for Obama. Using the logic of the race excuse, women and Democrats are more racist than men and Independents. Blacks shouldn't be afraid of The Man, they should be afraid of The Woman. Jesus, it wasn't like these people were voting for David Duke.

Now, if Obama had won, could the state then be considered sexist because they didn't vote for a woman?

What New Hampshire did (and let's not forget, we're not talking about a whole hell of a lot of delegates here) was promote the preception that this is now a two-person race between Obama and Clinton with Edwards hoping to hold on until February 5.

On the Republican side, which doesn't have as much drama as the Democrats, McCain won the same state primary that he won 8 years ago. You mean to tell me that John McCain had support in New Hampshire? This might be the highlight of McCain's campaign. Despite so many people criticizing McCain's speech last night, I thought it was pretty good, maybe a greatest hits version of past speeches, but still good. Not nearly as good as Obama, I mean holy shit that guy can give an incredible speech. Personally, I think McCain is the only good candidate the Republicans have; but I haven't been too keen on the Republicans in quite some time - and considering the legacy the Bush Administration is leaving behind, it will be a long long time before anything Republican seems really appealing, at least until the moderates get their heads out of their asses and do something besides bending over for the social conservative/big business crony nutcases in the GOP.

So, nothing was settled for the Republicans, other than the continued revealing of Romney's Emperor's New Clothes campaign. Then again, if the top spot continues to go to different candidates with Romney holding steady at number 2 each time, he could still win the nomination. Hey, it's a strategy.

So, onward to Michigan and Nevada. Yippee!

Man, This Sucks Caucus

Well, now that the Iowa Caucus (or as I called it yesterday, the Iowa Clusterfuck) is over what does it mean? Not much, other than giving the pundits and commentators something to talk about and speculate until Tuesday when New Hampshire holds their primary. (Actually, Wyoming Republicans are holding their caucus this weekend, but who the hell cares about Wyoming? Well, the Republican nominees should since the National Committee decided to punish New Hampshire for moving its primary date to earlier in the year, and cut half of its delegates, which means there are more than twice as many delegates up for graps in the Equality State than the Granite State. But why mess with tradition?

Anyway, how did last night's results look? And how were my predictions?

Dems

Totals according to NYTimes this morning:

Obama 37.6%
Edwards 29.7%
Clinton 29.5%
Richardson 2.1%
Biden 0.9%

My prediction:

Clinton 33%
Obama 30%
Edwards 26%

Oops. While Edwards and Hillary are almost tied, Obama cruised ahead, helped in large part, I think, by the caucus system's second choice vote. Many people see Clinton's third place as a warning, but the division between second and third isn't very wide. It will be interesting to look at the polls in New Hampshire now that Iowa has decided. Will an Obama win boost his appeal to primary voters?

GOP

Totals according to NYTimes

Huckabee 34.3%
Romney 25.3%
Thompson 13.4%
McCain 13.1%
Paul 10%
Rudy 3.5%
Hunter 0.4%

My prediction:

Huckabee 40%
Romney 26%
McCain 20%
Rudy 12%

Oops, again. OK, so I was right about who would win and who would come in second, but my numbers were off, except for Romney. And where the hell did Thompson come from? Who are these 13% that voted for the guy? Do they still believe the crap that people said about him before he started campaigning, and before he proved to be such a slug?


So at the end of the night we have an overwhelming sense that people want something beyond the status quo, as well as two less candidates (Dodd and Biden). Hopefully Dodd will go back to the Senate and start raising Hell by challenging Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader. Will the new faces continue their drive toward 1600? I don't know. NH can be pretty conservative state, no just in political terms, but in traditional ways as well. Right now New Hampshire is McCain's to lose. Mitt may have a chance, but Huckabee's momentum will definitely stop in the Granite State. NH voters are fiscal conservatives, not social conservatives. I think the latest NH state logo says something like, "Not only do we turn a blind eye toward sodomy and abortions, we're not even gonna tax you on them." You're not going to find very many evangelicals here. Huck might as well head to South Carolina. New Hampshire will also be a major test for Rudy's campaign. With such a dismal performance in Iowa, if he doesn't receive at least a decent amount of support, he can kiss the nomination good-bye.

The number of nominees may drop after New Hampshire as well. I mean, what is Mike Gravel's campaign running on? Kucinich is nearly running on empty. Richardson may hold on until Feb.5, but barely. Unless these guys receive at least 5%, there's simply no point - and people would be deluding themselves if they thought any of them still had a chance.

So, the fun continues.